The World Bank published its forecasts and estimates for the Iraqi economy during 2018, as positive indicators overshadowed the scene despite warnings of the fragility of the situation due to the dangers of the Iraqi situation. The population of Iraq is 38.5 people and GDP 197.7 billion dollars and the poverty rate according to the poverty line of 3.2 USD Today it is 17.9%, while the ratio rises by $ 5.5 per day income to $ 57.3, but the national poverty line was set at 22.5%.
While Iraq’s average age is 69.6. The report predicts that the growth of the Iraqi economy will accelerate as the security situation improved by 4.4% in the non-oil sector in 2017, despite the slow pace of reconstruction activities due to the repercussions of the war and the drop in oil prices. Economy and address the problem of displacement, where 10% of Iraqis still suffer from displacement. Iraq’s needs for reconstruction were estimated at $ 88 billion, but the positive indicators showed the situation slightly, according to the report. Inflation recorded a low rate of 0.1% in 2017 and a total budget deficit of 2.2% last year.
The improvement in financial products helped stabilize the public debt in 2017 After an increase in the rate of borrowing and issuing debt guarantees as the debt ratio stabilized compared to the total domestic output in 2016, for example, at 64%, and began foreign exchange reserves increase in 2017 to cope with external shocks. Labor market statistics pointed to further deterioration in poverty conditions where the record intended.
The participation of young people between 15-24 years has decreased significantly and the unemployment rate has doubled in the governorates affected by violence related to displacement and displacement, where 21% compared to the rest of the provinces 11%. The World Bank expects Iraq’s growth prospects to improve due to a favorable security environment and gradual recovery of reconstruction investment amid forecasts of GDP growth despite an OPEC cut-off agreement that binds Iraq to commit. Threats to growth in Iraq include possible political tensions and possible terrorist attacks.
The outlook for the future may deteriorate over the medium term. In the long run, there are looming risks, such as the possibility of oil price volatility, failure to improve the security environment, failure to implement the expected large measures to reform public finances and contain current expenditures. E, and not to give priority to invest in the reconstruction, and public debt is still vulnerable to shock a decline in oil prices or decline in the real exchange rate of the dinar.